| Authors |
Evgeniy V. Kislitsyn, Candidate of economical sciences, associate professor of sub-department of information technology and statistics, Ural State University of Economics (62 8 Marta street, Yekaterinburg, Russia), E-mail: kev@usue.ru
Vladislav V. Gogulin, Master degree student, Ural State University of Economics (62 8 Marta street, Yekaterinburg, Russia), E-mail: vlad.gogulin@bk.ru
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| Abstract |
Background. The relevance of the work is due to the lack of use of serious mathematical and algorithmic tools in works devoted to the study of ecological systems. Therefore, the main goal of this article is to construct a simulation model of the environmental situation in a large metropolis using system dynamics notation and agent modeling ideas.
Materials and methods. The theoretical and methodological basis of the research is fundamental and modern works in the field of ecology, mathematical and simulation modeling of ecological systems. The article uses methods of analysis and synthesis, grouping, generalization and classification, as well as mathematical analysis, modeling and system dynamics.
Results. Based on the analysis of existing methods for assessing the environmental situation in the city, the main factors affecting it were identified – pollution from industrial enterprises, from vehicles, and green spaces. A simulation model consisting of six structural agents and the Main base class is constructed. For the design and construction of the model, the AnyLogic 8.6 system is used. Three agents reflect the factors that affect the air, one agent "Pollution" accumulates their influence, and two agents reflect the dynamics of the city as a whole. The simulation model has a software implementation adapted for the city of Yekaterinburg. It has developed a user interface that allows you to change exogenous variables in the system, reflecting the dynamics of the main indicators in the form of tables, graphs, columns and pie charts, as well as reflect air pollution in individual districts of the city. The developed simulation model allowed us to conduct a number of model experiments that reflect changes in the environmental situation in the city, depending on the management decisions made.
Conclusions. A simulation model of the city's ecology has been constructed, displaying it as a system of interrelated elements. The created simulation model can be adjusted individually for any large city, and, taking into account the adequate filling of the model, reflect changes in atmospheric air. This model allows you to conduct simple simulation experiments ("what – if" analysis), as well as an experiment of varying parameters. In particular, 9 situations were analyzed and proposals were made to improve the environmental monitoring system in the city of Yekaterinburg. This research can be useful for state and municipal authorities in the field of ecology, specialists in the field of mathematical and simulation modeling.
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| Key words |
simulation model, system dynamics, agent modeling, ecology, city, industry, air pollution
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| For citation |
Kislitsyn E.V., Gogulin V.V. Simulation of the environmental situation
in a megalopolis. Modeli, sistemy, seti v ekonomike, tekhnike, prirode i obshchestve = Mod-
els, systems, networks in economic s, technology, nature and society . 2021;1:92–106.
(In Russ.). doi:10.21685/2227-8486-2021-1-8
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